In 2025, the armed conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, along with escalating tensions between Iran and Iraq, have reignited the destructive impact of war on the global economy. Their effects have already gone beyond the battlefields, affecting supply chains, driving up energy prices, and reigniting inflation in economies still dealing with the aftermath of previous crises. Historically, wars destroy capital, halt growth, and spread their effects far beyond the directly involved borders. GDP falls sharply, infrastructure is devastated, and even non-participating countries face economic slowdowns and rising prices. Nevertheless, some sectors thrive, and new capital flows emerge amid the chaos. In this scenario, the question remains: to what extent can these new conflicts reshape the global economy and how might the crypto market respond amid increasing instability?
Brief history: wars and their economic effects
- Wars and inflation
The First and Second World Wars marked periods of extreme monetary instability. To finance military efforts, governments resorted to massive money printing and uncontrolled debt, which culminated in episodes of hyperinflation, such as in Weimar Germany. The physical and human destruction required emergency economic responses, often disorganized, resulting in monetary collapses and prolonged social crises.
- Post-war reconstruction and growth
With the end of the conflicts, reconstruction efforts brought new economic arrangements. The Marshall Plan, funded by the United States, injected capital into devastated European countries, fostering the resurgence of production and institutional reorganization. At the same time, the Bretton Woods system established a new global monetary order, with the US dollar consolidating as the reserve currency. The combination of external capital, political stability, and economic coordination marked decades of solid growth in the West.
- Modern wars and commodities
More recent conflicts, especially in the Middle East, demonstrated how modern wars directly influence the prices of strategic commodities. Oil, in particular, became a sensitive asset in the face of military tensions, such as during the Gulf Wars or the Iran-Iraq conflict. In times of instability, investors often move toward real assets like gold and oil, seeking protection against inflationary and geopolitical shocks.
Behavioral patterns
- Where capital seeks refuge
During wartime, financial markets react quickly and cautiously. Increased uncertainty often triggers an automatic migration to assets considered safer. Investors prioritize instruments that preserve value such as gold, the US dollar, and government bonds from developed countries. This movement is not only a reaction of fear but also a strategy to protect wealth amid rising global risk and instability in equity markets.
- Capital flight and impact on emerging markets
Developing countries tend to be the most affected regarding capital flows. Global instability causes abrupt resource outflows from these markets, pressuring local currencies, raising interest rates, and devaluing assets. The consequence is increased economic fragility and a risk of prolonged recessions.
- Government and central bank responses
To counteract the economic effects of war, governments typically launch emergency fiscal stimulus packages. Central banks, in turn, adopt measures to ensure liquidity and control inflation expectations.
The emergence of Bitcoin in a crisis context
Bitcoin was created in 2009, shortly after the 2008 global financial crisis, as a response to the failure of major banking institutions and the fragility of traditional financial systems. Its creator, under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, proposed a decentralized architecture based on blockchain that eliminated the need for intermediaries and ensured the integrity of transactions through cryptography. This model challenged the foundations of the existing system by placing financial control in the hands of users rather than central authorities. From the beginning, Bitcoin was associated with the concept of monetary sovereignty, attracting those seeking protection from state interference, monetary manipulation, and aggressive inflationary policies.
Over the years, Bitcoin faced its first real crisis tests: capital controls in Greece, hyperinflation in Venezuela, banking censorship in authoritarian countries, among others. In these situations, the market began to perceive Bitcoin as a possible store of value during instability. Although its high volatility and lack of regulatory consensus limit its use as a classic “safe haven,” its growing adoption during crises suggests that for many, Bitcoin represents more than a speculative asset—it is a digital alternative against the structural fragility of the global financial system.
2025: the new global conflict and current scenario
The worsening global geopolitical landscape in 2025, especially marked by heightened tensions in the Middle East and the risk of a breakdown in trade negotiations between the United States, China, and Europe, has produced immediate market effects: currency instability, rising oil prices, inflationary pressures, and increased risk aversion. The possibility of the Federal Reserve anticipating interest rate cuts, as suggested by Christopher Waller, Fed governor, in an interview with CNBC, responds to the need to stabilize expectations amid simultaneous shocks to global energy supply and supply chains. Amid a falling dollar, economic contraction, and growing institutional uncertainties, assets characterized by scarcity and inflation resistance have regained prominence, including Bitcoin.
In this context, cryptocurrencies have played multiple strategic roles. Besides serving as an alternative for transactions in territories affected by sanctions or financial blockades, they have been used by refugees to preserve wealth during forced displacement and by humanitarian organizations as tools for transparent fundraising and resource distribution. Bitcoin, in particular, has attracted renewed attention not only as a means of cross-border transaction but also as a potential store of value in times of systemic panic. Despite its volatility and correlation with technology assets raising doubts about its role as a true hedge, the combination of expansionary monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty supports the perception that a new cycle of appreciation may be underway.
Impacts on the crypto market
The global conflict in 2025 triggered immediate reactions in the crypto market, with significant price volatility in digital assets. Bitcoin appreciated amid capital flight but maintained its volatile nature, fluctuating according to global risk appetite. At times, its correlation with gold intensified.
In regions most affected by sanctions, banking instability, or institutional collapse, the adoption of cryptocurrencies grew organically. Refugees and populations facing financial restrictions turned to stablecoins to preserve value and conduct transactions, while NGOs started using blockchain to operate with greater transparency and efficiency. The use of decentralized networks gained traction where traditional channels ceased to function.
In response to this growth, governments have taken different approaches: some have increased regulation to better control financial flows, while others have begun discussing the formal integration of crypto assets into the traditional financial system. At the same time, institutional investors’ entry was boosted by a falling interest rate environment and dollar depreciation, repositioning Bitcoin and stablecoins as central components in the new global financial landscape.
War as a catalyst for a new monetary system
The war of 2025 has reshaped the global financial landscape but also accelerated profound changes in how the world views money. Amid chaos, cryptocurrencies emerge as a symbol of adaptation and possibly rupture. The question now is whether we are witnessing a temporary solution or the beginning of a new financial order.
